Friday, March 24, 2006

Al Qaeda and Israel

Lately there has been a flurry of news reports speculating about an increased Al Qaeda focus on Israel. If this is the case then, in my opinion, it indicates that Al Qaeda is growing ever more desperate to gain support of the Muslim masses. As it has managed to rack up failure after failure in other areas and the broad rally of support they hoped for never materialized, they are forced to fall back on the one issue that they think all Muslims can agree on. By shifting their remaining resources to Israel, they possibly hope to finally gain some support but even that seems to be backfiring. Hamas has dismissed Al Qaeda's overtures of support in a very vocal and public way. Neighboring countries such as Lebanon and Jordan have recently undertaken operations against Al Qaeda cells. Al Qaeda's methods in Iraq continue to disgust Muslims and in even the tribal regions of Pakistan, many tribal leaders are unconvinced and are taking a "wait and see" approach in the latest government initiatives to root out terrorists rather than giving their full support to extremist elements.

So I see the latest reports of Al Qaeda aiming their operations at Israel as an indication of our success. They are apparently leaving Iraq in droves, the Sunni population in Iraq is turning against them, they are losing their support in the tribal regions of Pakistan, Muslims all over the world are turning their backs on them and refusing to join their brand of jihad. Using the Palestine - Israel conflict as a means to gain legitimacy has to be near to a last ditch effort to. As even the more militant groups in the conflict reject Al Qaeda's offers of support, one can only imagine that whatever leadership is left must be laying awake at night wondering what went wrong.

I believe this summer we will see the undoing of a great amount, if not the bulk of what remains of their networks and skilled operators. I would equate the installation of the final elected government of Iraq with the end of the battle of Guadalcanal in the Pacific in 1943. It will mark the definitive turning point and be the second concrete failure of Al Qaeda and their associated fanatics. Rather than have masses of Muslims running to them and overturning existing governments in order to build a sharia-based caliphate, they will be seen as on the run again, scrambling for support, and sticking their noses into other people's battles.

Hey, Osama ... you are failing ... globally.

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