Saturday, December 10, 2005

So much has happened lately and I have spent more time writing on other blogs than my own. Probably because I find the discourse there stimulating.

I realized last night that creating a Federal Iraq was a stroke of brilliance. After the central government elections next week, things will turn to the regional governments that actually hold most of the power concerning daily life. The Shiites are going to lose a significant piece of their control in the central legislature and the Sunnis will take their rightful place as all indications show lively support for the election process.

There had been some worry on my part that the Shiite majority would dominate the Kurd and Sunni regions until I read an article somewhere (sorry, don't remember exactly where) pointing out that it is the regional governments that will actually hold power and named several people who had decided not to stand in elections to the central government because they considered their job of having participated in the writing of a constitution complete and were now going to where the real power is, in the regional government.

The Kurds have been busy building a quite peaceful community relative to the rest of Iraq. They now have two airlines (really charters of other planes that they put their names on, but it's a start and they are proud of it) and business people are arriving from all around the world. Factories and homes are being built. The economy is growing.

The Sunni areas actually stand to gain the most. They have been afraid of Shiite domination and a significant influence from Iran. The Federal system should help to control any undue Shiite influence over the rest of Iraq and serve to protect the Sunnis and Kurds from Iranian meddling. The "rejectionists" that have been the core of the militants stand to gain considerably in this round of voting. For every seat they take in the legislature, a Shiite seat is vacated. Also, the coming of a more peaceful community live will allow reconstruction to begin on a much larger scale. The Sunni areas have not had the degree of reconstruction and rebuilding of infrastructure that the other areas have had due to security issues. As these issues dissipate, dramatic improvements can take place and the economy of the Sunni region will blossom as it has in the other areas.

There is the potential for a sweeping change to occur in Iraq over the next few weeks. I am optimistic that this will take place and things will move toward peace and prosperity for all Iraqis. We have already seen a start of this taking shape as elections draw near. Iraqis are turning in terrorists, providing tips on weapons caches, and taking their security in their own hands to a degree we have not seen in the past. In many cases we see Iraqi civilians turning in these criminals to Iraqi forces and they are then detained, tried, and convicted by Iraqi courts. This is as it should be and a great indication of progress.


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