Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Is he or isn't he?

Abu Musab al-Zarqawi might be wounded, or he might not be. He has a problem, that's for sure. A while back, an intercepted message apparently from Osama was urging him to turn his efforts against the US homeland. A message intercepted, oh, about a year ago had al-Zarqawi saying that if the elections happened in Iraq, the days of the insurgency were numbered and their only hope was to incite civil war between the Shiite and Sunni factions. More recently an intercept apparently from some insurgent group to al-Zarqawi complained of low moral, waning support for the insurgency and criticism for running away from Fallujah.

This gives Abu Musab a problem. How can he leave a lost cause to obey Osama and turn his efforts directly against the US? How can he do this without looking like he has run away ... again. If he leaves the country, he becomes a loser. He must leave the country but he must not leave the country. Simple. He "dies" in Iraq, he becomes a hero, takes a new identity and carries his destruction to the US.

I thought it was interesting that a doctor in Ramadi that claims to have treated al-Zarqawi and was told to keep quiet, went directly to the media with the story. If that man is still alive and still practicing at that hospital, I would suspect his story.

Anyway, my guess? It is the beginning of the end of the Iraqi insurgency.


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